Will Red Sea resumption and tariffs weaken global shipping in 2026?
Trade protectionism and increased capacity pose downside risks to shipping volume growth.
The global shipping sector is projected to continue weakening in 2026, blame it on geopolitical and policy risks.
In its Global Shipping Outlook 2026, Fitch Ratings said the sector will also be affected by the lower economic expansion amongst most major markets next year from 2025, with downside risk from any correction in financial markets.
“A key event risk across shipping segments is a resumption of Red Sea transits, leading to a reduction in tonne-mile demand, although there is limited visibility on this possible development,” Fitch Ratings said.
Tariff disputes have moderated expectations for volume growth, particularly for container shipping, in 2025 and 2026. The medium-term impact of protectionist measures remains difficult to quantify but should be negative overall.
An increase in trade protectionism could also alter trade flows and limit demand for some high-margin or critical products over the medium term, although some new trade lanes could strengthen to offset those more affected by tariffs.
“We expect container shipping performance to weaken in 2026 as lower freight rates resulting from a weakened supply-demand balance will lead to lower profits in 2026,” the analysis said.
Tanker shipping, particularly for crude tankers, is seen to continue performing well, thanks to growth in end demand and tonne-miles. The bulk tanker segment, meanwhile, is likely to have weak but stable fundamentals year on year.
Fitch Ratings expects performance across other segments, such as liquefied natural gas shipping and car carriers, to remain broadly stable.
“Shipping order books have increased moderately across the various segments, but vessel scrappage remains low, resulting in a moderate capacity increase,” it said.
“The International Maritime Organisation’s Net Zero framework, yet to be approved, is likely to increase pressure on shipping companies’ cost structures over the medium term, and the extent of pass-through of increased costs has yet to be seen,” it added.
