Regulatory limbo threatens shipping's 2030 zero-emission fuel target: report

Analysts said shipping's pathway to zero remains achievable.

The shipping industry risks missing its 2030 zero-emission fuel targets due to regulatory uncertainty over the past year.

According to a Global Maritime Forum report, the industry is targeting at least 5% to 10% of the fuel used to come from scalable zero-emission sources (SZEF) by 2030.

The report noted that this is the estimated level of SZEF uptake needed to meet the industry's entire 2050 net-zero goal.

“Whilst the geopolitical turmoil of the past year has frustrated this process, with the right policy push, accelerated industry action can still deliver on this crucial ambition,” said Jesse Fahnestock, director of decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum.

Across the five key levers used to assess progress—technology and supply, demand, finance, policy, and civil society)— the report said there have been multiple achievements.

The past year has seen the world's first ammonia bunkering and sea trials, a 53% increase in the number of ports offering methanol bunkering.

Methanol-capable in-service tonnage tripled, and the global shipping finance portfolio saw its greatest improvement in climate alignment on record.

"Shipping's pathway to zero remains achievable, investable, and aligned with development goals," said Dan Ioschpe, Climate High-Level Champion for COP30.

He added that demand for zero-emission shipping and financial flows directed toward zero-emission shipping are critical to accelerating the pace.

Despite this, other key levers needed to reach the 2030 breakthrough target, particularly across demand, finance, and policy, have either stagnated or worsened since the last report.

With demand signals weakened by the widespread 'wait and see' approach to global regulation, the order book has regressed and shipping-specific sustainable debt issuance decreased to $3b in 2025 from $3.4b in 2024.

The report makes multiple recommendations, including that the International Maritime Organisation adopt the Net-Zero Framework 'as is', as this will create the global policy clarity and direction the ecosystem urgently needs.

It also stresses the growing importance of national and regional policies that underpin SZEF production to de-risk first-mover action, regardless of what happens next.