BIMCO warns dry bulk stability could end as fleet growth hits 3% surge ceiling

New ship deliveries and weaker China demand raise risk of freight rate drop in 2027.

The global dry bulk shipping market is expected to remain broadly balanced in 2026 before weakening in 2027, as fleet growth begins to outpace demand, according to Baltic and International Maritime Council’s (BIMCO) latest outlook.

Dry bulk demand is forecast to grow by 2–3% in 2026, roughly in line with projected fleet growth of about 2.5%.

In 2027, supply growth is expected to accelerate to around 3%, whilst demand growth slows to about 1–2%.

Longer sailing distances are expected to continue supporting demand.

Disruption around the Red Sea and uncertainty over a full return to normal Suez Canal operations have increased voyage lengths, particularly for iron ore shipments from the South Atlantic to Asia.

BIMCO estimates average sailing distances will increase by 0.5–1.5% annually through 2027.

Iron ore shipments are expected to grow by about 1% per year in both 2026 and 2027.

Whilst Brazilian exports support volumes, demand from China is expected to remain weak due to subdued construction activity and high inventories.

Coal shipments are projected to decline, with imports into China and advanced economies falling with volumes forecast to fall by 1–2% in 2026 and by 2–3% in 2027.

Demand growth in India and ASEAN countries is expected to offset part of the decline but not fully.

Grain shipments are expected to grow by 5–6% in 2026, before slowing to 1–2% growth in 2027.

Trade tensions, particularly between China and the United States, remain a downside risk for soybean shipments.

Minor bulk cargo growth is expected to slow, reflecting capped aluminium production in China, weaker steel demand, and slower construction activity

On the supply side, the dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by about 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027.

The current orderbook is equivalent to about 11% of the fleet, with most deliveries in the Panamax and Supramax segments.

Ship recycling is expected to increase but is unlikely to offset new deliveries due to relatively firm freight markets.

The Baltic Dry Index remained elevated through much of 2025.

Freight rates are expected to remain relatively stable in 2026, before coming under pressure in 2027 as additional tonnage enters the market and demand growth slows.