Fuel supply gap threatens shipping’s decarbonisation targets
Dual-fuel fleets are expanding faster than low-carbon fuel supply.
Shipping’s transition to low-greenhouse gas fuels is accelerating on the demand side, but supply constraints and structural barriers are putting decarbonisation targets at risk.
As Asia Pacific Maritime 2026 concluded in Singapore, leaders warn that the gap between fuel-ready vessels and available low-carbon fuels is widening. “The gap is very real, and it's widening, as we speak,” said Chris Chatterton, Maritime Advisor of the Global Centre for Green Fuels at Maritime Ethanol & Methanol Alliance (MEMA), citing a surge in dual-fuel vessel orders without matching fuel availability.
The industry is rapidly adopting technologies across methanol, LNG and emerging ammonia pathways. However, fuel supply remains constrained by limited production, certification challenges and economic viability. “The ships are being delivered, fuel ready, but operating mostly on conventional fuels,” Chatterton added.
A key issue lies in how global energy investments are shifting. Torben Nørgaard, Chief Technology and Analytics Officer of the Maersk McKinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping said capital is increasingly directed towards regional energy resilience rather than global fuel systems. “We see less investments going into fuels that are suitable for global markets,” he said.
This trend reflects broader energy transition dynamics, where investments favour electricity, storage and bio-based fuels serving domestic or regional markets, leaving shipping—an inherently global industry—struggling to secure scalable supply.
Policy frameworks are also creating bottlenecks. Chatterton pointed to “policy misalignment and the rigidity of the policy” as a major barrier, noting that current regulations often limit the adoption of viable alternative fuels.
In addition, financing uncertainty and infrastructure gaps continue to delay project development. Fuel producers require long-term offtake agreements and regulatory clarity, whilst logistics challenges—such as transporting fuel to ports with proper certification—remain unresolved.
Without decisive action, the sector risks falling short of its decarbonisation ambitions. “We need to move from ambition and target setting to real execution and more pragmatic operations,” Chatterton said, calling for fuel-agnostic policies and faster deployment of transitional fuels.
Nørgaard emphasised that the industry must build internal capabilities and align with evolving energy systems. He noted that strategic planning and regulatory development will be critical to maintaining competitiveness in the future energy landscape.
As shipping navigates the transition, aligning fuel supply, policy and infrastructure will determine whether the industry can meet its emissions targets or face prolonged reliance on conventional fuels.
