China throughput seen at 5% in H2, moderating in 2027

This will be driven by strong increases in trade with new partners amongst others.

China’s port throughput growth forecast for 2026 has been raised to about 5% from 2% on stronger exports, according to S&P Global Ratings.

China’s exports grew 14% in January-July, driving coastal container throughput growth of 5.2%. Rated port operators reported throughput growth of 4% to 6% in the first half of the year.

S&P expects throughput growth to remain at about 5% in the second half of 2026 before moderating to between 3% and 5% in 2027.

“Strong increases in trade with new partners, higher value-added shipments, and robust demand for transshipment will drive the momentum, in our view,” said Shanshan Yang, Analyst at S&P Global Ratings.

Recent congestion at major Chinese ports has stemmed from weather events and vessel bunching rather than capacity shortfalls. Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao have faced congestion following typhoon-related closures amidst strong container volumes.

“Backlogged cargo and concentrated vessel arrivals have created a cycle of delays, tightening slot availability,” Yang said. “These disruptions are likely to extend through September, pressuring operators’ handling efficiency during peak season.”

S&P said capital expenditure plans for rated port operators remain unchanged, with capacity expansion proceeding in phases based on market conditions. Prime hubs operated by rated issuers are running at full capacity.

“With strong volume growth and more frequent port congestion, we think construction will likely continue for the next three to five years,” Yang said.