Chinese yards take 90% of dry bulk orders ahead of US port fees return

Capesizes make up 46% of capacity on order as deliveries accelerate.

Chinese shipyards have secured 90% of new dry bulk orders so far in 2026, compared with 8% for Japanese yards, according to the Baltic and International Maritime Council’s (BIMCO) Dry Bulk Shipping Market Overview & Outlook.

US port fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships remain suspended until 9 November, after which they could be reinstated, although BIMCO said further postponement remains possible.

The dry bulk order book reached 169.3 million deadweight tonnes (DWT) at the end of the third quarter, equal to 15.4% of the fleet.

The capesize segment accounted for 46% of the capacity on order, followed by supramaxes at 24% and panamaxes at 23%.

Ship deliveries are forecast to reach 51.7 million DWT in 2027 and 54.1 million DWT in 2028.

“Capesize deliveries are driving this increase, following a couple of years of higher contracting, whilst panamax and handysize deliveries are expected to slow down,” the BIMCO report said.

The report said 32% of the capacity in the current order book is expected to be delivered only after 2028, amidst high lead times at shipyards.

The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow 3.5% in 2026 and 4% in both 2027 and 2028, whilst BIMCO expects the supply and demand balance to weaken in 2027 and 2028 from a high baseline.

Of the order book, 10% can use alternative fuels on delivery and another 22% is designed for future retrofit.

Of the capable capacity, 63% will be able to use methanol and 22% are expected to use liquefied natural gas.

Attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea continue to cloud the dry bulk outlook, BIMCO warned.