Record orders push container fleet growth to 13.9% by 2027

Ships larger than 12,000 TEU make up 59% of capacity on order.

Global container fleet capacity is forecast to grow 13.9% towards the end of 2027, as the market’s order book exceeded 14 million Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU), a BIMCO report said.

Fleet capacity has just reached 34 million TEU and is forecast to hit 37.7 million TEU by the end of 2027, an increase of 4.6 million TEU since the end of 2025.

Ships larger than 12,000 TEU make up 59% of capacity on order. Notably, 5 million TEU is on order for ships larger than 17,000 TEU, equal to that segment's entire current capacity.

However, recycling potential remains far below the scale of the order book. Ships aged 20 years or older account for just 16% of fleet capacity, whilst BIMCO's forecast includes only 140,000 TEU of recycling.

In both forecast scenarios, ship supply is projected to grow faster than ship demand in 2027, indicating a weaker supply and demand balance regardless of how geopolitical disruptions resolve.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a key swing factor as transits have fallen to less than one per day despite a Memorandum of Understanding signed between Iran and the US.

Meanwhile, 20% to 25% of container capacity using the Suez Canal and Cape of Good Hope routings has already shifted back to Suez, compared with 80% to 85% before disruptions began in 2023.

BIMCO estimates that if routings fully normalise, ship demand could fall 10% compared with continued Cape of Good Hope routing, with 2027 demand growth potentially ending 5 percentage points lower than currently forecast.

Operators are already managing capacity through slower sailing speeds—capacity-weighted average speed has fallen to 14.5 knots in 2026 from 14.7 knots in 2025, and BIMCO expects a further reduction in 2027, absorbing roughly 1 percentage point of fleet growth in both years.

Moreover, freight and charter markets have strengthened since the start of the Iran War, though recent freight rates from North Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean have shown some weakness, whilst rates to the Americas have strengthened.

The report said it expects freight, charter and second-hand ship markets to soften in 2027 as the weaker supply and demand balance takes hold.